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Population Growth in Bhtan

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Acknowledgement

It was truly a pleasure and knowledgeable to do this project, the knowledge that can definitely help me in the later walks of my life. This output doesn’t come only from my own hard work, but it is an outcome of many individuals.

Firstly, the hearty wishes and prayer from my parents help me to do my work without any struggle and difficulty. Their prayers always lead me in right direction to complete my works on time successfully. Dear parents the unfathomable blessings and good wishes where the spiritual strength with which I have pursued this work. Their love, patience, sacrifices are vested in every page of this study.

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I might be still struggling to start my work if I didn’t get guidance from Dr. Nandini Sarma, who has always been a source of inspiration for me from the day I started my work. The success and jubilation of this work comes from the touch Dr. Nandini Sarma. My words are not sufficient for expressing my feelings. I express my deep sense of gratitude and indebtedness to my reversed supervisor, Dr. Nandini Sarma, whose constructive criticism, affectionate attitude and constant encouragement have added greatly towards the completion of this work. I will always remain grateful to her kindness for all times to come.

I am really indebted to my friend who stood behind me in all the circumstances and consequences of my life and was always there to help me anytime. The information from you all has contributed tremendously in making of this project. Thank you each and every one for your kind support.

Introduction

A Buddhist kingdom on the Himalayas’ eastern edge, known as BHUTAN is known for its fortresses (dzongs), monasteries, and beautiful landscapes that goes from subtropical plains in south to mountains and valleys in the north of country. However the country is found just a dot on globe and is considered small country in the world.

Population of Bhutan was 768,872 in the year 2016 and presently the population of Bhutan is estimated to be 792,581 which show a huge increase in population of such a small country. The increase is naturally expected to be positive, as the number of births will exceed the number of deaths.

Most Bhutanese belong to the western ( Ngalops) and Eastern(Sharchops) Bhutanese. The southerners (or Lhotshampa), are a group primarily of Nepali descent. This group of peoples make 45% of the population. It included migrants who fought a war with Bhutan over rights to language and dress in 1988. Since then, there has been mass emigration that caused hundreds of thousands to leave Bhutan as stateless people in refugee camps. An additional 15% of the population is indigenous or from migrant tribes.

In 2006, Business Week ranked Bhutan as the happiest country in Asia and the 8th happiest in the world. Bhutan has a literacy rate of 60% with a median age of 25 years old. Most of Bhutanese follow Vajrayana Buddhism (75% of the population is Buddhist) which is the state religion. 22% follows Hindu, followed by 2% folk religion and 1% other religions.

The capital city of Bhutan is Thimphu and is the largest city with a estimated population of 126,500. Bhutan occupies 0.011% of the world population as present population of world is approximately 7.5billion.

Chapter-1: Population Scenario

Population Growth of Bhutan

Bhutan is just found a dot on the globe and is considered small country in the world. The population of Bhutan was 768,872 in the year 2016 and presently the population of Bhutan is estimated to 792,581 which show drastic increase in population in such a small country. The increase is naturally expected to be positive as the number births will exceed the number of deaths by 5,298. Due to lack of reliable information related to external migration we neglected it in our estimation. Accordingly with estimations, the daily change rates of population in Bhutan in 2017 will be as follows:

40 live births average per day (1.65 in an hour)

14 deaths average per day (0.57 in an hour)

Thus, the increased in the population of Bhutan is by 26 persons daily in 2017.

Population pyramid

The age and sex structure of a population and the insights about the political and social stability as well as economic development is demonstrated by “Population pyramid”. Horizontal axis (x-axis) shows the population, with females and males on right and left side respectively. The female and male population are broken down into 5-year age groups represented as horizontal bars, along the vertical axis (y-axis), at the bottom the youngest age-groups and the oldest being the top most. The fertility, mortality, and international migration trends gradually evolves the shape of and style of the pyramid.

Chapter-2: Methodology

Measurement of Mortality

Crude death rate (C.D.R)

The number of deaths per k persons of population in any given region or community during a given period is known as crude death rate.

CDR(m)=(no.of deaths in a year)/(annual mean population)*k

Where k=1000, usually.

Age-Specific Death Rate (age-S.D.R)

Death rate computed for a particular specified age-group of the population is termed as age-specific death rate (age-S.D.R) for given geographical region during a given period is defined as Age-Specific Death Rate (age-S.D.R) and given by

Age-S.D.R=(No.of Deaths in the age group(x,x+n))/(Total population of age group x to( x+n) )*k

Measurement of fertility

Crude Birth Rate (C.B.R)

The number of births per k persons in the population of any given region or community during a given period is also known as crude birth rate.

C.B.R(m)=(annual births)/(annual mean population)*k

Where k=1000, usually.

General fertility rate(G.G.R)

This consists in relating the total number of live births to the number of females in the reproductive or childbearing ages and is given by the formula.

G.F.R=B^t/(∑_n^f▒P_x )*k

Where B^t= no. of live births occurring among the population of a given geographic area during a given period t,

∑_n^f▒P_x =female population in the reproductive age, in the given geographical region during the same time t,

δ1,δ2=lower and upper limits of the female child bearing age, and

k=constant (usually 1000)

Age-specific fertility rate

In order to overcome the drawback of G.F.R and get better idea of the situation prevailing in a community or locality it is necessary to compute the fertility rates for different age-groups of reproductive age separately. The fertility rate rate so computed on the basis of specification w.r.t age is called the age-specific fertility rate. And is given by

i_x=B_x/P_x *k

Total fertility rate (T.F.R)

In order to arrive at more practical measure of the population growth, the age specific fertility rates for different groups have to be combined together to give a single quantity. A simple technique is to obtain standardised fertility rate. This leads to total fertility rate (T.F.R) which is obtained on adding the annual age-specific fertility rates. Thus, symbolically,

T.F.R=∑_α1^α2▒〖B_x/〖fP〗_x *k〗

Measurement of population growth

Crude rate of natural increase

The simplest measure of population growth known as crude rate of natural increase is defined as the difference between the crude birth rate (per thousand) and the crude death rate (per thousand) and is given by:

crude rate of natural increase=C B R-C D R

Since CBR (CDR) gives the proportion by which population increases (decrease) in population through births and deaths taken together.

Pearle’s vital index

pearl^’ s vital index=(C B R)/(C D R)*100

It’s simple to understand and easy to calculate. Pearle’s index is regarded as a fairly reliable statistical constant reflecting the net biological status of the population as a whole. The vital index may be

Equal to 100

If the value is equal to 100, it indicates stagnation in the population growth.

Greater than 100

If vital index is greater than 100, then the population is regarded as having good medical care

less than 100

If it’s less than 100, then the population is not holding its own.

Gross reproduction rate (G.R.R)

In order to have a better idea about the rate of population growth, in addition to the age and sex composition of the population we must take into account the sex of the new born children since it is ultimately the female births are the potential future mothers and result in an increase in the population. The gross reproduction rate is a step in this direction and is defined as the sum of age-specific fertility rates calculated from female births for each year of the reproductive period.

Inferences from the graph

From the above graph we can infer that birth rate exceeds death rate as per the annual rate. As in 2009, the birth rate was the highest (~20.07) and death rate was highest in 2009(~7.39). The birth rate and death rate never coincide, that shows with every changing year, with the evolution of technologies the life expectancy of people increased and due to social awareness brought enhancement to birth rate

G.F.R= 8200/214914*1000

=38.154 per thousand

T.F.R=5*∑_n▒i_x

=5*261.6483

=1308.24 per thousand

G.R.R= 5*∑_n^f▒i_x

=5*151.45

=757.25 per thousand

Population projection

The estimation of the future population based on the present information available is known as ‘Population projection’. Population projection usually involve mathematical models based on pre-existing data (may be made by a governmental organization or by those unaffiliated with a government).

The formula given below is used to calculate future population if current population and a growth rate is given. i.e,

Where: Pop Present = present population

i = growth Rate

n = No. of Period

Bhutan Population projection

Definitions of population projection :

*An application of historical data (known information) into the future (unknown)

*As related to immediate past, an attempt to describe what is likely to happen under certain explicit assumptions about the future.

*A set of analysis, which shows the fertility, mortality and migration in future depending on the assumptions used.

Linear Projection Growth

Assumptions:

Population Growth rate is constant

Change is only experienced at the end of unit time

Resultant change (i.e. interest) does not result in any change.

The population of Bhutan will grow to around 885, 969 by 2030, according to the analysis for “Population Projections: Bhutan 2015-2040.

The country’s population is estimated to grow 4.86 percent for the next 25 years, which is termed as a medium growth.

Conclusion

In this project it contains mainly the analysis on population of Bhutan and how it increases over years. As shown in above contents, population of Bhutan increases drastically over the years and it’s also going to increase in coming years almost at same or higher rate.

Through this work, I got the lesion on the population scenario of our country and learnt lot about population prospects of our country. By understanding the current status of the population, we can predict about the future population and resources required for the increased number of population in future. Thus, we can prepare to reduce the scarcity which the increased population is going to face.

Finally from the above analysis we can conclude that the birth rate and death rate never coincide, that shows with every changing year, with the evolution of technologies the life expectancy of people increased and due to social awareness brought enhancement to birth rate. Thimphu, the capital city of Bhutan has highest number of population (Approx.1.25 lacs). The country’s population is estimated to grow 4.86 percent for the next 25 years, which is termed as a medium growth. So we can infer that population of Bhutan is increasing normally with time.

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