Scenarios are hypotheses of alternative environments that highlight different risks and opportunities (Ogilvy, 2011). Recent weather trends increasing in frequency have caused extreme weather patterns that could continue during the next 20 years according to Global Trends 2030 (2012). These environmental issues could affect the Hamilton County School System. Explain which trends are likely to have the most impact on your organization and region. The extreme weather could impact school attendance. Climate change will pose issues causing school cancelations for snow days, intense heat, or even flooding.
Many school systems already have built in “snow days”, however if these days become the norm then school systems will have to adapt. Students must attend 180 days of school; however extreme weather could cause the schools to extend their school year to make up these days. This issue does not just impact the students but also parents and teachers. This trend could become a financial issue as well. Teachers that work summer jobs will miss out on that income while during “snow days” parents will either miss their own jobs, or have to find alternative supervision for their child. Eventually this trend could affect how schools handle these “snow days”. Instead of missing a school day, teachers could use one-to-one technology to teach students from home during school closures.
A buildings environmental hazard could be a critical impact on students, teachers and faculty. Extreme weather such as heat waves, flooding, and freezing can cause issues in the buildings that have poor maintenance and aging infrastructure. Schools contain hazardous materials that when exposed to these extreme conditions could cause a hazardous event in the buildings. Extreme climate change can cause vulnerabilities within the schools that could cause health problems from these materials that would be an unpredictable outcome to this trend. Children spend on average about 30 hours a week at school making it the most influential environmental factor in a child’s health and wellness (Hurlbert et al., 2016).
Climate change can make these factors worsen by poor air quality indoor and outdoor causing illnesses such as asthma to worsen. Adults and children’s immune system response could also be affected by climate change resulting in possible school closures from infectious diseases such as influenza. This trend has the most predictable outcome. Three data resources for this trend: Climate at a Glance to review the trends and climate changes, National Center for Educational Statistics to review the trends in attendance for both teachers and students, and Pan American Health Organization to view the health status of a region.
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